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Ment Japanese
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How I can create a toy company?
I want to start an online business of toys, but the problem is how I can find toys wholesale? I want toys (including Japanese gashapon, re-training and desinger HK Toys & etc). Pls help me!
Go to the glasses and the type of manufacturers of toys in China, which will be your starting point, you must also check with the Government on the import of the regulations, insurance, etc. is a company large .. Good luck Peace
THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL CRISIS ON THE WORLD FINANCIAL MARKETS
Massive reduction of fluid and credit problems raiting banks (for first time in the (Northern Rock) in April and May 2007 and since 2005, the range of problems such as the results of the fall in the housing sector, the impact of devaluation on bank assets and the manifestation of bankruptive effect in a number of banks have reached a critical point before September 2008.
The financial sector was severely damaged by the unprecedented growth of prices rise significantly decreased after financial crisis and credit squeeze.
In the structure of consumption, forcing high cost was a negative influence on the great masses of savings of the population and consequently in the volume of investments also has caused the increase in cost. therefore, decreased demand because of two factors. (A second which was formed in part by the influence of the former is connected to the reduction of the winners and the fall of their bonds). In the year 2007 with the purpose of the reduction in oil prices, the experiment does not specify the coordination of independent central banks of countries in the use of credit regulation in money exchange rates, taking into account the taxation of stock. At the bottom of multidimensional priorities, different and difficult, problems are revealed mostly in the difference in interest rates. Rising oil prices must have first been reflected in the U.S. $ Purchasing power, but in a number of countries around the world, oil imports (reflected in money), when in negotiations, is invested in U.S. $, Raised U.S. demand $ Currency devaluation and conditioned on the Japanese yen, euro and sterling. For the principle of reducing oil prices, the financial crisis had already been in the U.S., the election of President in the U.S. Moreover created an atmosphere for a better future changing. Today, countries around the world, cut main interest rates and therefore the difference between them is decreasing.
Stock market has been significantly damaged by the devaluation of the assets of special enterprises established by banks for the purpose of securitization of credit. (SPV) assets include commercial debt obligations (CDO), ie, in this case, especially credit obligations Mortgage (CMO), representing one of a variety of obligations, jointly with the values of active bonds (ABS) and mortgage bond securities. This pyramid real, in which each next, next level of value was provided in part by lower-level titles, but one of the means prescribed for MBS was real estate, or the present, the cut price parts of buildings are depreciated all kinds of securities.
What happens in Wall-street? Along with banks, not can cope with the loss caused by subprime count and giving bonuses to be blamed by experts from the financial centers of the crisis, the culprits are called "quants" on Wall Street and major financial centers worldwide. It is difficult to judge the point of only one side, current events are suitable for the saying "fish in troubled waters." On the one hand we can not blame financial institution for crediting aggressive to maintain market share, if asked by the expectations positive, but only if the legal-regulatory standards, these regulations should not only provide an opportunity for banks and other financial issues to behave irresponsible and so rudely to the depositors and borrowers funds (or would be more correct to say that should not have been done this way.) Like the millionaire gamblers do, in the casinos of Monte Carlo. There was regulatory frameworks (eg regulatory requirements, namely, the proportion of risk assets ratios capital, regulatory demands liquid reserves, limits on open currency positions and other arguments for government protection) can not or may not correspond new methods of risk control, the development of credit derivatives and the expansion of operations to balance. With this, the additional compensation of employees, which is actively used as a system of reimbursement by western financial institutions (obviously not referring only brokerage houses). This increases the interest of agents in the growth of offerings in size and also increase the conflict of interest, when the operation offers the agent, growth of premiums, but in fact threatens the main potential loss.
Now, let's go back again with "quants" and its mathematical methods that is somewhat based on exact science, but is similar to the resistance of the sophists high mathematics, ie for example with the correlation of two functions of inspiration or one and the same number, which is the result of two new correlation functions.
What is paradoxical, but only these details made move from science, built on the primary basis for the most complicated and most common concepts and the dichotomy of the discontinuity of time. (The last one is universally recognized in philosophy). Again sounds paradoxical, but wisdom is in simplicity and in accordance with Georgia Ilia Chavchavadze writer, no small miracle and large. Sophistical models, which use various levels and methods of analysis multivariational often lose focus and their use in the control of assets and liabilities, establishing oneself in the new source of risk. Moreover, most models are far from primary basis and therefore the test results are difficult be apprehended and sometimes even non-essentials. It must be said that during the past several years, financial management programs are available through Internet and suppliers to try to advertise their products through multi-dimensional annotation scheme difficult and incomplete versions promo; between, there are plenty of facts amateur creativity. Sometimes the part of managers are unqualified Uindly and use of these systems with confidence. In addition to incorrect decisions and problems we must not forget the problem of villainy and act unbecoming of managers and staff in general. It is important to note the fact to mislead shareholders and the markets using asymmetric information to achieve the desirable goal. Recently, this type of incident happened to Société Generalr after it revealed that management had implemented a series of "elaborate, fictitious transactions" in 2008, hoping to cover this issue from other accounts and after E 5000 million fraud had been to store information exchange and changed the blame on the employees. The fact that the amounts are so large gives an indication to how everything that is used today and how volatile equity positions are – Conclusions are in the hands of the reader.
CAUSE AND EFFECTIVE aspects of the crisis. And yet, specifically, what is a major virus that developed immunodeficite syndrome and fell throughout the economy and financial system vital? Only separate aspects can be displayed on this problem and only on the basis of diagnosis revealed part of the symptoms. In accordance with it, if that makes and impact of the problems that are connected together, and discuss more deeply. The other aspects will be presented in a strict sense comperatively or in other worlds, can not get to restore the reality of the cause and the problems entirely effective. So far, it is beyond the human mind to imagine more three-DIMENSION complex sphere. In theory, it is tested and runs in the risk assessment and computer models and control system. The uneven quality of confidence irrelevant finance managers and ordinary people, to the non-completion of cybernetics, as well as the most important post economic virtual illusions the result of scientific-technological revolution simulational computer models of financial support, or other risk management portfolio that have radically changed knowledge of reality, the attitude toward risk, future developments and became the major provocation factors in the decision process of the approaches not natural interrelationships of scale and proportions.
It's really difficult to define for the first time, what was the reason for the operation sacrifing billions of dollars worth of securities – The global financial crisis and general economic problems. The tendency of the vector in these interactions will be manifested in accordance what issues will be discussed and at what level or in other words, the direction of this vector is changing the dynamics of the development crisis.
The raitings problems of credit and liquidation of bank credit organizations were almost less than before the crisis reveals, not the fact that credit risks were not increased, but were simply shifted outbalance accounts. The reason is unilateral – such as increased risk factors have not been used in the calculation of assets according to the risks of regulatory demands. Instead of hiding the risks and liabilities premiering in order to attract money liquid flows, the use of security and Credit derivatives are cursedly effective, although the reaction of regulators found to be very late and mild.
INFLUENCE OF PRICE ALTERATION About real estate? On the one hand, to circumvent the restrictions, connected with the regulatory and arbitration practice 10-15 years forecasts, based on growth trends economic, credit managers pushed the expansion of credit very bold. In the initial stage, caused a boom in consumption, growth in housing prices and the economy. In the context of increased activity, the companies were trying to increase the flow of money and issue securities bonds and other obligations, which together with the appearance new corporations and securities complicated potential investors. (Among them are a lot of unqualified people, most of the securities to buy time through Internet, not only for their actual income, but according to your interest rate, without any serious risk-analysis). The bankruptcy has increased the attractiveness of the securities other than shares as much as possible, as if "financial balloon" would have been "inflated" to the credit agencies and dragged away from the sector credit of the fastest growing real economy. Formation of "credit bubble" is connected to the housing boom and space housing. The price growth caused by increased accessibility of mortgage credit, have continued to change the situation in the housing market while immigration is limited to U.S. and the United Kingdom to reduce the demands for housing, spaces in major markets. The banks were interested in increasing the cost of goods roots. It can be explained by the following Conditions: mortgage loans have the properties for sale and consequently its market price defines the existence of possible losses or size of claims in the event of default by the debtor, until the term expires or before the breach, the appropriate credit card or security, stabilized for her, as the cost of assets.
creditor's interest related to the growth of real estate prices is against the debtor and which is the fundamental period of the mortgage, the rising cost of funds flow increases the proportion of costs: the debtor's funds flow is the most important component solvency. Undisturbed growth in real estate prices, therefore a large number of debtors and the strengthening of competition among the credit agencies: the grounds of cost cutting credit analysis of borrowers by banks, mortgage credit insurance conditioned to be accentuated and, in fact, this priority debtors credit is the analysis of a minor issue. Although it should be the first and highest source of coverage of loans and in accordance with prudential application of the law, the mortgage as a means of covering loans should be used only in extreme situations. However, this request is followed by banks still, what matters is not only the loan repayment by the debtor, rather than the results of credit analysis (particularly, in accordance with the relevant funds flow) but the dependence on insurance, while making decisions on credit, means that the chances of default rates are quite high. The increase by 2-3% in the real sector of the economy, the growth conditions of the property of differentiation, by outnumbered cover such debtors Credit has been impossible. The story has been transferred to the ownership of banks, being returned back to the real estate market.
Because of increased of supplies and frequent failures, the limit distribution of mortgage loans caused disastrous fall in real prices of property ownership. By He assumed his part in maintaining the reduction of mortgage loans. The trend of decline and deterioration in asset quality, which is also conditioned the aggravation of the problem of liquidity, (During this period, reducing the rating, very scared investors and hedge funds) made the banks to minimize the new credit delivery process. supply of immovable property, was made mostly through the use of mortgage lending and without it, recession in the housing sector has not been delayed.
Conclusions on the credit markets. . Let us form all in the details and items. All above and other specific problems and the reasons for the credit crisis of the primary sources of the financial crisis:
1. While accreditation, it was not clear to the experts, if the claimant (after-debtor) he managed to generate funds flow to cover the mortgage.
2. It was almost impossible to meet the price of the house of purchasable by a mortgage or in other words, participation was minimal debtor.
3. Interest rate may change in many types of loans or increased clarity that was not done by everyone else.
4. Too often, mortgage loan was used for other purposes by the debtors to obtain cash.
5. Many loan officers and potential borrowers pushed brokerage companies and helped them create a false profile (mask) solvency in order to obtain the raw commission etc.
Subprime mortgages. "Subprime" accreditation. We have already discussed the issue of solvency of the debtor in the economy section insurance costs and accent. We will also note that the analysis of debtors is quite complicated. The problems caused are: rapid dissemination of marketing network, the development of the virtual economy (where payments and receipts, estimates of software are not fixed) also difficulties in estimating management skills and the driving force of corporate relations of human capital conditioning and increased the frequency of inappropriate decisions.
Hereby, banks, compared with its rivals were trying not to disturb the potential debtors infrequently at the request of the documentation. According to the proportion of subprime incomplete documentation increased from 25% (2000) 43% (2007).
subprime accreditation due to lack of savings required reducing the demands of complicity in the purchase of housing for low-income debtors. The forecast for growth in prices of flats, made acceptable subprime mortgages. participation of the debtor through the use of mortgages for the purchase of housing has reached 14% by 2000, although it has been reduced to 4% from the year following and stopped at this level before revealing the crisis. This even became the major stimulus to speculation mentioned.
Given the accreditation high and to ensure acceptable to subprime and credit derivatives (we mean, and there were fluctuations in the real estate markets in 2001 and the trend of falling sales and housing business since 2005, also in accordance with the highest risks, transaction costs rised control nonbalanced risk and the fall in asset values are stabilized due to the reduction in credit rating) compensation for market risk was developed by banks under the condition of giving credit for variable interest rate. If fluctuated between 10% -23% on prime mortgages, a high risk, the extent and its limits and were more than 50% -70%.
In general, the basis for the characteristic patterns RAPOC, conseptional "profitability under the risk" acceptable (in my opinion) on the level of accreditation and common theoretical base level of investment, as the criterion of giving priority to the homogeneous creditors, either for the selection of an investment project. But, we must take into account, as will be guaranteed and how often changes its attendant risks of interest rate by different amounts. In case of large loans, the growth rate has a direct and complete information about the solvency of contragent itself. But in reality, as it looks for people with less knowledge of payment, the demand was greater interest in the case of the mortgage principal.
It must be said that in case of business loans in the form of providence (mortgage) because the connection to the hazards of business, a large part is applicable assets.
Banks were not manipulate interest rates as often as were the analysis of work plans and financial conditions of companies as possible. With this, the possibility of diversification, according to business types is greater, especially in terms of the offer. So the credit crisis and Default numbers is shown above all in relation to mortgage bonds. Readily available supply, which in any case was filed during the real estate default case, was transferred to the ownership of the banks and, after being offered to the market, which influenced the increase in supply by the fall and it was difficult for them to pay the default through the completion of the mortgage. At the same time, due to the practice of so-called "air" sales of incomplete story had not been completed by the time of default. Because of falling prices, the construction boom was first changed by stagnation and recession the case was revealed. In the chart, shows the dynamic indices of housing prices-houses, according to the basic level in 2000. As is clear from the selection table in 2005, prices have dropped sharply, but the number of vacant houses houses are increasing. Due to the decline in new construction, on all this growth continued at the expense of homes seized by debtors and creditors, which makes the table in bold.
Due to credit "corruption" and intensified the liquidity problems, banks stopped giving even other types of loans or have tightened the conditions. Many banks experienced difficulties in reorganizing the regulation problem protection rules, capital and the liquidity ratio, banks bankrupt. Since the beginning of the crisis in the U.S., so far, the number of commercial banks has declined by about 7280-700. (It makes sense to name the number accurate, since the process of unity between banks and bankruptcy are still ongoing. It was necessary to atone for the massive subsidies, Fannie Mae and Ginnie Mae by the systems Federal Reserve.
Extension of the loan broker is one of the most important. The share of so-called "wholesale lending" in size total loans expanded 60% of the segment in 2004 to 90% in 2007. It is natural that the mediators of credit (but not only brokers dealers) are less interested in guaranteeing repayment of bank credit.
Taking official interest credit (loans were issued even the least credit customers) was caused by the scheme of payment of bonus pay, according to the credits issued on what we have already mentioned above.
Contest fact that banks serve the interests of borrowers in cash, connected to accreditation; this and reducing the demand for participation debtor be given the opportunity to borrowers to use the credits to nowhere.
Mismanagement caused the system. (So the drawbacks of the system itself and the inadequate assessment of their nature). 15 years economic development, without any obstacles, people did think that without increasing the real sector of production, goods and services, enrichment is quite possible. Financial Sector made a colossal, titanic pressing on the real sector of the economy. Today, only 2-3% of the financial operations belong to the real sector, but the rest of the funds of working within finance. Current world financial economic crisis "of the great depression", after almost 80 years, it still confirms that the economy of the free movement not only develops within the limits for the maximum – of its development by Keynes and other representatives statism''(French. State. State) point of view, but it became the world's highest pyramid of the differentiation of the property, which is now upside down and a pusher furnace, threatened with destruction. The collapse of the pyramid, which was enough to break one of the lines connecting equilibrium and such was the credit line, stretched between the balance of construction and banking giants (in this case does not mean "credit line" is defined mainly from the economic point of view terminology) that has been "hanging in the sky." Let's see, that the construction of new homes was happening, according to the pyramid scheme, in the way that floors in multi-storey houses were sold, without even having the Foundation under. Such interaction, in the case of real situations is even necessary for the stimulation economic growth, but to make the prognosis, different type of conservatism is necessary.
Analysts admit that the main reason for the crisis current problems are not the U.S. mortgage markets. Loan is connected to the real economy, which on its side is an essential instrument of investment demand. U.S. mortgage liabilities meets $ 12-13 billion, but in the global currency markets, the size of the combined operations $ 2,000,000,000 in a day and from here, only 4-5% of operations are in the real economy and the rest is speculative money.
The scales of the speculation was growing at a rate colossal -12 to 15% in one year. monetary system, they made a mistake, it is impossible to exist a long time. It shakes the institute of private property., Which requires truth, not virtual money. The first signs of crisis, as a rule, the influence on the banks, and only later in the real sectors of the economy, after all, moves to the financial sphere and the state budget system. As analysts say, today we are at the first stage of crisis.
As we know, each year 50 000 million dollar cost of goods and services are produced worldwide, just this sum of money is at odds with the values of $ 1.5 trillion of value, such as bonds State and private actions, bills and so on and so forth.
Central banks in other countries, with the assistance of the system Global Financial began billion in the flow. At different stage, helped the situation, but temporarily. According to some analysts, it is impossible to fill This $ 1.5 billion hole fucking, and even cash reserves total U.S. and euro-zone central banks will not suffice, on the other hand, pseudo-money, called values can not be transformed into cash.
What should we do?! According to analysts. With the end of the world that is not on the edge of a global catastrophe, should work on two directives: real economic Continue accreditation, even at today's existing remains.
The first address is quite difficult, but necessary. Each new day is born of information "economic catastrophe" and the reason is the credit freeze.
financial structures just want that cooperation with the money from the owners. Although the crisis destroyed capital of the world. From the viewpoint of experts, one of the ways in which economic survival is to involve as much capital as possible in the economy. The size of the recapitalization should be extended more and more, and state control should be stricter in order to man almost the nationalization of the significant part the financial system, but only temporarily. Then, when the situation returns to its usual schedule, again start denationalization. Experts example of this is Switzerland, that after combating crisis in the early 1990s, managed to return back their shares in the bank.
Due to the crisis in a number of countries, the total or partial nationalization took place. Lately, Britain was 50000000000 pounds (about 64 billion pounds) to recapitalize big banks Britain. Large share of this money – £ 37000000000 is for the following banks: Royal Bank of Scotland HBOS and Lloyds TSB. In return, plans are underway give shares of Royal Bank of Scotland HBOS and the transfer of state control package. It is assumed that temporary nationalization of banks will last longer.
As mentioned above, we are only at the initial stage of crisis, but are realizing forethoughts economist and after New Year, which will collapse many well-known banks, industries, laboratories, universities, and after future all the people.
Somehow the banking, albeit temporarily sighed, but still the real sectors of the economy ran out of money. Banks do not issue more money. This terrible trend will cause a big problem not only for the real sectors of the economy, but also for individual countries. Many countries live in the credits of the financial institution and if the situation does not change, a number of countries such as Pakistan, Argentina, Mexico, Hungary, the other ads Ukraine against the danger of default. In addition, at the end of 2008, Iceland went to the edge of the realization of the risk factor and the British Institute was blamed for it Financial.
"The fight against" the methods against the crisis. Different treatment methods are used in different countries against the economic crisis.
In a given area of the economy, the fight against crisis therefore, can be divided into three models:
I. Where the total income amounts in the financial field, or the case too, the United States did. Place $ 2.3 billion to help banks, but to support the real economy, 10 times less.
Goverments of Canada, Ireland, Netherlands and Sweden are following this principle.
The method can be regarded as the second model, when the government refers to all efforts towards the real sectors of the economy. Only in this way China's socialist was elected. His authority invested in infrastructure, agriculture and social fields.
According to Company analysts Merrill Lynch, only the latter was the reason the Chinese market is still in the spotlight for investors.
Some countries try to shake hands equel of assistance to the financial sector and the real economy. This model was used only after the bad example of U.S.. How many countries believe that only with the help of the financial sector, the crisis would be overcome. These countries are Germany, France, Italy, Sweden and Japan.
The European Union leaders said the assistance of 200 billion U.S. dollars to members still in November. On 12 December, just this plan antirecessionary demonstrated in Brussels. According to the plan of each country shall allocate 1.5% of the total money income. € 30000000000 from € 200 billion will be allocated by the investment bank. It is stated in the declaration, which, from the point of view of the countries of the Union in the independent sectors of the economy, tax rates and extra value appraisals can be cut. Under the agreement, the European Union will not allow none of the large financial organizations in bankruptcy. Due to maintain the solvency of the banks that the government plans to buy shares. In short, to stimulate the economy growth, the EU will have profound coordinated action.
According to experts, the world's largest state have already spent $ 9.4 in all million antirecessionary measures.
Any funds to be used for growth of the economy is acceptable. These expenses, which are used for social programs and economic activities of States, may be a heavy burden, the cost of strawberry, to be allocated in the future due to the inactivity of today, much larger burden, which own savings.
Professor Doctor of Science in Economics
Qoqiauri lamara
About the Author
Qoqiauri Lamara
Working place: Tbilisi Iv. Javakhishvili State University
Address: Tbilisi, 2, University St.
Tel.: (+99532) 30-40-66
Web-site: www.fib.ge
mail: qoqiauri@caucasus.net
Residence: Tbilisi, Varketili, 159, Gakhokidze St.
Tel.: (+99532) 79-07-10; (+99532) 760595 Mob.: (+99599) 90-60-11
Fax: (+99532) 76-05-95 E-mail:
